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Photographer:Just an awful earnings report from the stock market's most important retailer on Tuesday: Home Depot. Bottom line – the broader-market implications of Tuesday morning's post-earnings stock move for Home Depot are going to be significant. And don't expect much improvement from the home improvement retailer any time soon. That's worth about 100 points on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and should take a bite out of the S&P 500 too. Remember, it's the most impactful retailer in the price-weighted Dow – having almost double the weight of Walmart (since it is almost double the price).
Home Depot reported its biggest revenue miss in more than 20 years and lowered its forecast for this year, as consumers delay big projects and buy fewer big-ticket items like patio sets and grills. The company said it now expects sales and comparable sales to decline between 2% and 5% for the fiscal year. Yet he said the anticipated pullback has been compounded by rising mortgage rates and a shift toward spending on services. It marked the second quarter in a row that Home Depot missed Wall Street's revenue expectations. Home Depot in the quarter sold fewer pricier discretionary items, such as new appliances, McPhail said.
The company drove higher sales, in part, by offering lower prices. The company's Chief Financial Officer David Bergman chalked up the margin decline to higher promotions as Under Armour marked down merchandise from prior seasons and sold it through off-price retail. The company said it expects margins will still be under pressure as higher promotions outweigh lower freight costs. Simeon Siegel, a retail analyst for BMO Capital Markets, said the pandemic gave retailers a chance to press the reset button. As of the end of the quarter, Under Armour had nearly $1.2 billion in inventory, up 44% year over year.
More than one third (35%) of the S & P 500 reports earnings next week — including megacaps Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms and Amazon — versus less than 12% in the week just ended and only 2% last week. So far this quarter, S & P 500 earnings are running 4.7% below the same period a year ago, Refinitiv data shows. Back then, the S & P 500 fell 19.4% from its April high to a low on October 3. Meanwhile, next week is the last full trading week before Wall Street's old adage to "sell in May and go away" takes hold. ET: FHFA Home Price index (February); S & P Case-Shiller home price indexes (February) 10:00 a.m.
Next week's market action could be dictated by how well the latest quarterly reports from corporate America are received. Expectations about the immediate earnings outlook have been down for so long, the actual numbers themselves could look like up to investors. Earnings for all financials in the S & P 500 are actually expected to expand in the first quarter by 4.3%. ET: NAHB Housing Market Index (April) Earnings: Charles Schwab, M & T Bank, State Street, J.B. Hunt Transport Tuesday 8:30 a.m. ET: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook Earnings: AT & T, American Express, D.R.
As concerns about regional banks roiled markets, investors weighed another threat: commercial real estate. Also, layered on top of the property value pressure, are the tightening credit conditions brought on by the recent turmoil in the banking sector. There is no doubt this scenario is a toxic mix for the capital-intensive real estate industry. At the moment, many experts say the real estate market isn't causing trouble for banks, but fears about the financial system are likely worsening conditions in real estate because liquidity is being reduced. The biggest concern is seeing how many other companies join Brookfield , Blackstone and Pimco in handing back the keys on office properties, Clancy said.
Big brands have seen earnings propelled by double-digit price hikes – even if it has had a negative impact on demand elasticity. Only two-thirds (67%) of the companies that have reported have beat earnings estimates, the lowest beat rate in eight years. But workforce reductions aren't the only way for companies to cut costs, or necessarily the best way in a tight labor market. We've seen notable examples across industries of just how important general cost cuts have been this earnings season. Of course, Airbnb was one of the first companies to cut costs when the pandemic hit.
The soft landing is still alive, but so is inflation Watching the stock market from Yucatan last week, it was pretty clear that firmer inflation numbers from the consumer price index and producer price index meant the glidepath to lower inflation will likely be bumpier than the bulls have been hoping for. The problem is clear: We have to figure out the glidepath of the inflation decline. We'll get more inflation data this week with the personal consumption expenditures price index on Friday. The good news is that other economic data indicates that the economy is very strong, particularly on the jobs front . The problem is a lack of bounce in growth stocks: Technology is expected to be flat in 2023, with only a modest 8.7% bounce in communication services earnings expected.
Last week, Hilton Worldwide CEO Chris Nassetta said, "The demand trends here and now are really strong." In the home-rental space, Airbnb also said it was seeing continued strong demand at the start of 2023. China's reopening from its Covid lockdown is also helping propel travel demand, as well as the tick up in business travel, she said. "The trends have been really strong since January," he said. Airlines like Delta, American Airlines and United Airlines cited strong travel demand and higher fares for fueling their strong fourth-quarter earnings — as well as for forecasts for this year.
Fourth-quarter earnings estimates have been falling in recent weeks, with the current Refinitiv consensus predicting the first earnings contraction since the third quarter of 2020. Although this would be the first drop since 2020, there has been plenty of slowing growth prior to this earnings season. That projection was halved before the start of last earnings season three months ago. That might provide some optimism for what's in store during Q4 earnings season. The first-quarter earnings growth rate is sitting at a precarious positive 1.4%.
Most of the decline came in S & P 500 stocks, which lost a combined $8.2 trillion. Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Tesla, Meta Platforms and Nvidia lost a combined $4.95 trillion in market capitalization in 2022. Of those seven megacaps, losses ranged from Amazon's plunging market value of $844 billion to Nvidia's decline of $388 billion. Broken down by the S & P 500's 11 major industry groups, information technology's market value slid $3.49 trillion in 2022, trailed by consumer discretionary stocks, dominated by Amazon, Tesla, Home Depot, Nike, Lowe's and Target, at $1.91 trillion. Silverblatt used the S & P U.S. Broad Market Index, consisting of roughly 2,500 stocks, to measure the total market decline of $10 trillion.
If so, VF Corp. 's profit warning could be a sign of things to come. It reiterated its revenue forecast but slashed earnings outlook, citing expectations of a more promotional environment. On Monday, VF said there's a "more elevated than expected promotional environment" as it lowered its EPS guidance once again and said its CEO is stepping down . What's more, the latest revision isn't just about the promotional environment, and that's why it may be something for investors to watch. And "to a lesser degree," there is less demand in Europe and there are Covid-19 disruptions in China, it said.
Companies continue to battle inflation on a variety of fronts, but a new source is increasingly being called out: electricity costs. But this earnings season, a number of companies have cited notably higher electricity costs over the summer that put pressure on operating margins – and ultimately the bottom line. And some of these companies anticipate these higher costs aren't going away just yet. As reported by CNBC's Contessa Brewer, higher electricity costs in Las Vegas cut into EBITDA by as much as $20 million. That likely translates to higher electricity costs.
So here's a good trivia question: Of the "FAANG" megacap tech stocks, which has lost the most market value over the past year? Amid the earnings-related bloodbath so far this week, there have been huge losses. Alphabet , Microsoft and Meta have already posted their results, and tumbled in the wake of the reports. Thursday afternoon, Amazon and Apple are on tap.
The price hikes were enough to bring P & G's gross margin of 47.4% above StreetAccount estimates of 46.7%, despite the year-over-year decline. Let's take a deeper dive into P & G foreign exchange problem to better illustrate what's going on. It was a 3 percentage point headwind six months ago in P & G's third quarter and a 4 percentage point headwind in the fourth. P & G is yet another company that is indicating that analyst estimates are too high. The currency issue has basically created another headache for global companies like P & G. A big question will be whether P & G will evaluate further price hikes to mitigate the strong dollar's impact on financial performance.
The social media app will be developed by Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG). Digital World — The company aiming to take public Truth Social, Donald Trump's media company, surged 8.7% on news of Google approving the media company's app for the Play Store. Victoria's Secret — Shares of the women's clothing retailer climbed 3.1% after it said earnings in its latest quarter would end at the higher end of previous estimates, and reaffirmed its sales guidance. Applied Materials — The semiconductor-equipment manufacturer shed 1.7% after warning that fourth-quarter revenue and earnings would miss analyst estimates for its fourth quarter ending October 31. Duck Creek — Shares of the insurance-technology company jumped 6.6% after fourth-quarter earnings beat expectations.
As third-quarter earnings season gets underway, investors will be missing a good chunk of the action if they ignore guidance for the fourth quarter. Paint and coatings producer PPG Industries said " sales volume declines were most pronounced in September" and it expects difficult conditions to continue into the fourth quarter. Fourth-quarter earnings estimates for the S & P 500 have already been reduced in half since July 1 – which was just before the start of the second-quarter earnings season. Take a look at what happened during the just-completed Q2 earnings season. That's why it's important to watch what happens with the forward-looking fourth-quarter estimates this earnings season.
The sneaker and apparel giant saw a currency headwind of about 6 percentage points in its fiscal first quarter ended Aug. 31. And going back six months , the headwind was 3 percentage points. But take a closer look at the report and you'll see the real currency impact. Strip out the currency impact, and revenue grew a much stronger 16%. Nike's overall gross margin came in at 44.3% — or 1 percentage point below estimates and a couple percentage points below the year-ago level.
CarMax shares are cratering Thursday after the used car dealer posted one of its biggest earnings misses ever. That's the phrase generating all the headlines, but it's not the first time CarMax has used that line. It said it back in its June earnings report , too – when the company posted a 7-cent earnings beat. Is it that used car prices have suddenly gone through the roof, making purchases unaffordable? Yes, car prices are much higher than pre-pandemic, but prices have been elevated for about a year.
As the country reopened after pandemic closures, price hikes were essentially a sure bet. Will those price hikes be as big in magnitude as previous ones? Or do companies attempt to stimulate sales by cutting prices — but at the risk of eroding margins? On Thursday afternoon, it will be worth keeping a close eye on Micron and Nike to see what they have to say about pricing, margins and demand dynamics. Given the current situation, don't rule out future price hikes too from the food maker.
Look at what's happening between Dollar General and Dollar Tree if you want proof. The reason for Dollar Tree's weaker outlook is price cuts it's taking at Family Dollar stores that will eat into margins. Dollar General said it's seeing plenty of customers visiting its stores to buy food and groceries. But the problem for Dollar Tree is that it has less exposure to the grocery business than Dollar General. Family Dollar's customers tend to have lower incomes than both Dollar Tree and Dollar General, and clearly these shoppers are feeling the strain of months of higher prices.
Despite this, there are some firms – like most (but not all) travel companies – that are still exhibiting strong pricing power. Net income rose to $166 million, or 58 cents per share, from $67 million, or 27 cents per share, a year ago. Excluding items, Goodyear earned 46 cents per share, while analysts surveyed by Refinitiv had predicted a profit of 36 cents per share. Expedia – like all travel companies – is reaping the benefits of pent-up vacation demand. In the first quarter, rates were only up 4% year over year, too.
Despite new signs of slowing consumer demand, pockets of strength remain in travel, payments and autos. "Travel demand surged in the second quarter, and thus far, strong demand trends continue in the third quarter," CEO Bob Jordan said. Credit card companies have been showing no signs of a letup in consumer spending, too. Remember, American Express reported very strong travel and entertainment spending . And here's the key line in the release from CEO Michael Miebach who said, "Increasing inflationary pressures have yet to significantly affect overall consumer spending."
If the signals you're getting about the U.S. consumer seem mixed, there could be a very good reason for that: They are. In recent earnings conference calls, CEOs have been presenting more evidence that consumer spending patterns are bifurcating. Despite rampant inflation, the high-end consumer is remaining strong, but the low-end consumer is starting to buckle under the pressure. That comment came after the company, which owns brands such as Louis Vuitton and Tiffany, reported earnings Tuesday. On Tuesday, the company reported better-than-expected profit growth as price increases on its menu helped offset rising costs.
The dollar's record rally is wreaking havoc on some of the biggest companies in the world this earnings season. Morgan Stanley's Michelle Weaver said in a note to clients this week that the dollar's rally presents a headwind to earnings for U.S. companies, which make roughly 30% of sales abroad combined. Technology stocks are among the biggest behemoths so far to report headwinds from the dollar's strength this earnings season. Meanwhile, consumer discretionary names like Hasbro and Mattel are also feeling the pinch from the dollar's rally. While companies remain cautious going forward, some analysts and big investors also believe the dollar's rally has already shown signs that it's rolling over.
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